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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."